Top 8 Agile Estimation Techniques: Predicting the Success Route

Estimation in agile methodology is the hardest endeavor in all of the information software development processes. There’s a financial perspective, projections for future quarters, and the need to allocate resources to each iteration.

The influential components of agile estimation techniques, i.e., cost, timing, return on investment, and benefits delivered, can make, shake and break your business. In contrast, understanding scope, duration, and cost leads to a practical and effective strategic decision-making stage.

Although writing software code can be bread and butter for senior developers, poor agile estimation techniques can direct the entire project into deep waters, compromising the quality of resources and effort. 

So, how should you estimate size, cost, and duration effectively? Yes, We can.

Agile and Traditional Methodologies – A Generational Gap

Agile project estimation techniques differ from traditional estimation practices. Therefore, applying traditional techniques to agile project management results in inaccuracies. The underlying reasons for incompatibility are lack of expert opinion, flexibility, adaptability, and historical data.

The Sydney Opera House is a good real-world example of how quickly a project can be off-tracked due to poor cost estimation planning. It was anticipated to be completed within 4 years with a budget of AUD 7 million. However, the estimations proved futile because it took 14 years to complete the project and ended up costing AUD 102 million.

Hence, it was delayed by 10 years and had a shell-shocking budget difference of AUD 95 million.

Due to the interactive approach, agile software methodology is simpler and requires faster work with the active involvement of customers — making it best suited for the Sydney Opera House Project.

Additionally, using different estimation techniques in agile introduce flexibility in each step, eventually changing the software estimation process. It eliminates the personality trait of rigidity and allows the team to adapt to the dynamics smoothly.

Simply put, the world makes identifying techniques compatible with agile projects carry weight these days.

What are Agile Estimation Techniques?

Agile estimation techniques are approaches used in Agile software development to estimate the effort, time, and resources required for project tasks. Common agile estimation techniques include Planning Poker, T-shirt sizing, Relative Sizing, and Story Points. 

These techniques focus on collaborative discussions, team consensus, and relative comparisons to determine the complexity and effort involved in completing user stories or tasks. The aim is to provide accurate and transparent estimates to aid in project planning, prioritization, and decision-making.

Top 8 Agile Estimation Techniques -  The Big Cheese Of Agile Projects

At InvoZone, we employ the top agile estimation techniques that boost stakeholders' confidence in project duration, project scope, and cost estimation. 

We work to continuously adapt and plan from initial levels to more modular details because these techniques assist in incorporating necessary changes when appropriate, avoiding project waste.

There are a few that we can adopt. Let’s get familiar with them! 

• Planning Poker

A fun and collaborative way of gamifying sprint planning – Planning Poker is one of the census-building agile scrum estimation techniques. In this exercise, software development teams assign effort, i.e., story points or ideal days, to items in the product backlog. 

Being one of the most frivolous agile estimation techniques, Planning Poker adheres to the agile manifesto linked with the principle of collaboration and interactions in full-cycle software development.  

So, when it is the sprint meeting day, invite the Scrum team members to play poker using physical or digital cards.

• T-shirt Sizing

Just ask your Scrum Master to swap Fibonnaic numbered cards with t-shirt sizes. 

This method is effective for long-term planning and helps your team to attain relative estimations for smaller backlogs. Used mostly for the roadmap and release planning, it is nothing more than a guess at the effort based on the available information. 

For huge backlogs, you should generally employ a mechanism akin to affinity mapping and bucket systems. Everyone works alone to assign sizes and then meets at the end to address any disagreements. This strategy enables even small teams to get through a substantial backlog fast.

• The Bucket System Estimation

Large estimations are complex to determine via Planning Poker. But fear not because the Bucket System is ideal for estimating many items (50-500). Capitalizing on this agile estimation tool, various relative size buckets are fabricated, placed sequentially, and assigned values ranging from 0,1,2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 13, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200 (and more, if required). 

Next, the estimator places the user story from the project backlog into the suited bucket after discussing all its requirements with the team members. Follow the same drill throughout. 

• Affinity Mapping

Are you scrolling through Google result pages and bouncing off web pages in the search for an estimation that would assist your remote agile team effortlessly? Your quest ends here. 

Standing at the top of the agile estimation techniques pile, we have Affinity Mapping. It helps your agile team to reach a consensus after a brainstorming session, usability testing, or user research survey. The process can be rewarding when you have a lot of data to sort and filter into a solution.

Most importantly, it rapidly and simply estimates many user stories to a narrative point, handling large project backlogs. 

• Random Distribution

Random distribution, also known as Monte Carlo Simulation, is an agile estimation method that uses statistical sampling to estimate project variables. It involves generating random values within predefined ranges for each variable and simulating multiple iterations to analyze the range of possible outcomes. 

This technique helps teams understand the probabilistic nature of project variables and supports risk assessment and resource planning.

The random distribution agile method helps teams understand the probabilistic nature of project variables and provides a broader perspective on possible outcomes. It can assist in risk assessment, resource planning, and decision-making. 

However, it is important to note that this method relies on assumptions and historical data, and results are subject to uncertainty. Additionally, it may require statistical knowledge and specialized tools for accurate implementation.

• Dot Voting

Dot Voting is an estimation technique in agile software development that prioritizes tasks and works well for a small number of user stories. 

In this process, all user stories are posted on the Scrum wallboard. Voting is conducted among stakeholders during Scrum meetings to identify priority requirements. 

Votes are represented by dots using stickers or markers. After voting, the project owner rearranges the product backlog items depending on the results. 

• Big, Uncertain, Small

The Big, Uncertain, Small (BUS) agile method categorizes tasks based on their complexity and uncertainty levels. "Big" tasks are complex and require detailed planning, "Uncertain" tasks have moderate complexity and some uncertainties, and "Small" tasks are relatively simple. 

By breaking down tasks into Big, Uncertain, and Small categories, teams can ensure efficient project execution while effectively managing risks and uncertainties. This approach helps teams allocate resources, plan effectively, and adapt their approach accordingly.

• Top-down Estimate

The Top-down estimate agile method starts with an overall estimation of the project or a feature and then breaks it down into smaller components.

The estimation is refined and detailed as more information becomes available, and it involves collaboration and iterative adjustments throughout the project. This approach allows for flexibility and adaptability in project planning and estimation.

The Top-down estimate agile method allows for an initial high-level estimation, providing a rough idea of the effort and time required. It then allows for detailed estimation as the project progresses and more information becomes available.

Planning Poker or Bucket System Style?

Passionate about bringing teams together and building robust products? InvoZone utilizes an impressive range of easy, agile estimation techniques to fend off poor quality, budget overruns, or missed deadlines! 

Offering 100% free project management services, we bring your vision to reality because agility is a mindset that we worship! So, get on board, give us due dates, provide feedback during sprint meetings, and know the progress of each task.

The good news is that you can easily access the benefits of these top agile estimation techniques and experience the efficiency of a full-cycle Q/A product management system. Request your quote today and unlock the potential for successful project delivery.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is the Agile approach to estimating?

The Agile approach to estimating involves using iterative and collaborative techniques to estimate the effort, time, and resources required for project tasks. It emphasizes adaptability, transparency, and frequent feedback to ensure accurate and dynamic estimations throughout the project lifecycle. 

Agile estimation techniques, such as Planning Poker and Relative Sizing, are commonly used to facilitate team discussions and achieve consensus on estimates.

2. What are different estimation techniques?

Different estimation techniques include expert judgment, analogous estimation, parametric estimation, three-point estimation, bottom-up estimation, comparative estimation, planning poker, and wideband Delphi. 

These techniques offer various approaches to estimating project tasks based on factors such as historical data, expert input, relative comparisons, and collaborative discussions.

3. Why are agile techniques used?

Agile techniques are used in software development to improve productivity, adapt to change, and deliver high-quality products. They enable iterative development, collaboration, and flexible planning, leading to better outcomes and customer satisfaction. 

Agile techniques promote transparency, teamwork, and stakeholder engagement while reducing risks associated with traditional approaches.